Now You See It, Now You Don’t: Lapid’s “Government of Change” in Israel

Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party and possible future Israeli Prime Minister of Israel

On 5th May, Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid party, received the mandate to put together a government from Israeli President Rivlin. With 17 seats, Yesh Atid is the second-largest party in the the Israeli Parliament (the Knesset ). Incumbent Prime Minister and front-runner Benjamin Netanyahu had fallen short of the support needed to put together a government, after the fourth national election in less than two years

Lapid’s task was to cobble together a coalition government of left, center-left, and right-wing parties euphemistically called the “government of change.” These disparate groups have little in common beyond one mission – remove Netanyahu from office, which would perhaps be the only real change. Even so, they initially appeared to have a relatively clear path to put together this government within the allotted 28-day window that ended midnight of 2nd June.

Naftali Bennett, former Minister of Defense and head of the right-wing Yamina party, is the key individual in this coalition. Originally, he had served under Netanyahu but after Netanyahu was unable to put together a full right-wing government that could stomach the necessary support by an Arab party, Ra’am, Mansour Abbas’ four-MK strong Islamic list, Bennett finally gave up on him.

Naftali Bennet and soon to be former-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference

Only Bennett, by agreeing to switch his allegiance from Netanyahu to Lapid, could deliver the missing votes. His position gave him the opportunity to demand the first turn as Prime Minister, followed by Lapid, in a rotation agreement in the government of change. 

On the very next day, all hell broke loose. In Jerusalem, an impending court decision was expected to evict Palestinian residents from their homes in East Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. This caused riots which spread to other parts of the city, including the Temple Mount. Aggravated by Muslim and Israeli holidays that fell concurrently, the riots caused Hamas in Gaza to issue an ultimatum to withdraw Israeli security forces from the Temple Mount. After Netanyahu’s government would not heed this demand, Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem on 10th May, and all bets on Lapid’s government of change were off after the explosion of violence. 

Three days into the fighting, Jewish and Arab rioting had occurred in several mixed cities such as Acre, Haifa, and Jaffa. Bennett’s number two, former Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked, was never fully on board with a government of change that included Arab parties. By constantly doubting the possibility of ever forming this government, she had undermined Bennett in the Yamina party.

Netanyahu still faces charges for bribery, fraud, breach of trust and deception.

After others followed Shaked’s suit, Bennett caved in and promptly declared that, under the circumstances, he could not be part of the proposed government. It was presumed he would return to Netanyahu’s fold, in the faint hope that after Lapid would prove unable to form a government of change he would have additional options.

Eight days later, Israel made an unconditional ceasefire with Hamas. Jewish and Palestinian-Israeli rioting abated. Bennett showed renewed interest in the change coalition. This may be because even pundits recognized Netanyahu’s role in instigating or at least heating up the security situation just when Lapid started to put the change coalition together, to help scuttle it.

In the end, Lapid was able to put Bennett safely back on track while keeping his troops in line and committed to the change coalition, sort of. Some of them are still not completely lined up and massive pressure is being exerted to get them to jump ship and prevent the change coalition from gaining a majority. Success is by no means assured and we won’t know until the crucial vote is held.

Chances of a government of change coming together under Lapid remain probably not better than even. However, other than a fifth election, there is one other option to finally ease out Netanyahu; if one or both of the Haredi Jewish parties jump ship, cut the link they have formed with Netanyahu, and join the government of change. That is, however, unlikely to happen under Lapid’s stewardship.

Lapid is anathema to their parties’ leadership, as he has a long record of trying to limit their access to funds and otherwise counter their policies. It would therefore require a reshuffling of the leadership of the government of change, which would become possible only if, and after, Lapid’s government failed to pass the vote of confidence.

Stay tuned, we’re in for another cliffhanger courtesy of the Israeli voter…