Lebanon's Sunnis: A Lost Leadership

Since April 2005, when Saad Hariri was announced as his father’s replacement as leader of the Future Movement, most of the world has changed. Prime Ministers Blair, Sharon, and Singh, Presidents Bush, Mbeki, and Khatami, who sent messages of greetings, have all gone (and in many cases, so have their successors). Yet still, Lebanon’s highest Sunni leader still lurks on the cusp of power. For Harini, there can be no better description than as the replaceable, irreplaceable Sunni leader.

Unlike other groups still divided along sectarian and political lines, Lebanon’s Sunnis have for years felt underrepresented and without a single strong leader. Hariri, who has traditionally been the community’s main man since the assassination of his father in 2005, has come and gone from the political scene repeatedly over the years, leaving a void no one has yet managed to fill.

STRUGGLING TO CONTINUE

The politically inexperienced Hariri entered Lebanon’s seedy politics after his father, Rafic, was killed in a massive car bombing in Beirut more than 15 years ago. He took over the Future Movement in 2007 and has led the party into two successive elections; first in 2009, when it emerged as the largest block, and most recently in 2018, when the party was reduced to 19 seats; down from more than 33.

Since the 2005 attack, the country has been embroiled in numerous crises. In many of these events, the now 50-year old Saad has either been forced out of power by the powerful Shiite militia Hezbollah and its allies or withdrawn from the cabinet of his own accord.

Hariri has always defended concessions he has taken during stressful times in Lebanon. The two-time Prime Minister insists his compromises with other parties have been necessary to safeguard the country, accepting the bitter reality that he is faced with an armed faction that could not only assassinate him, as they did his father, but could wreak havoc on the nation if things don’t go their way.

One who understands Lebanon’s unique but extremely complicated political system, based on power-sharing between its many religious confessions, knows that, as has become the norm for the past thirty-odd years, the political leader speaks for his sect. Since the end of Lebanon’s brutal multi-faceted civil war in 1990, the Hariri dynasty has dominated the Sunni Muslim electorate in Lebanon. Rafic Hariri was a business tycoon who built his fortune in Saudi Arabia and co-founder of the real-estate giant Solidere, which played an almost exclusive role in reconstructing war-ravaged central Beirut and is still a key part of economic development in the city.

Saad has found it difficult to fill his father’s shoes amidst the many crises the country has faced over the past 15 years. This has left his supporters feeling powerless in the face of the growing influence of their rivals Hezbollah, as well as the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (‘FPM’) with which the Future Movement struck a political alliance in 2016, before officially breaking up with them in 2020.

One of Hariri’s biggest strategic blunders was making this deal with the FPM. The two had been bitter rivals prior to the political agreement, which was reached to end the political impasse the country had been living at the time. The deal guaranteed Hariri would become prime minister in return for his party giving their votes to FPM leader Michel Aoun during the 2009 presidential vote. This settlement, which many political factions in Lebanon saw very early on as doomed to fail, ignored widespread Sunni opposition to the FPM, dealing a huge blow to the community which was let down by their leader’s attempts at a solution.

It is unfair to blame Hariri alone though, despite his many downfalls and failures. Regional factors, mainly fuelled by the US-Iranian power struggle in the region which has divided Lebanon since Hariri entered politics, have left him and the country bearing the brunt of a fractured political system and a reeling economy.

His 2019 resignation, which he announced 10 days after the unprecedented national uprising that had erupted in October of the same year, was another heavy blow to his supporters. While the goal of the protests was to force the Maronite President, Shiite Speaker of Parliament, and Sunni Prime Minister to resign jointly, only the latter succumbed to pressure from the streets. Hariri’s loyalists felt defeated, not just as supporters of the Future Movement, but as an entire community. Once again, they felt as if their leadership was the only one paying the price, while other confessionals’ did not.

As rival parties and religious leaders worked to demonize the protests for their own benefits, Hariri’s supporters were under the impression that it was impossible for the demonstrators to force any other politician to follow in their leader’s footsteps and resign. What began as a nationwide, largely non-sectarian uprising, which aimed to bring down a corrupt and dysfunctional ruling class, slowly lost momentum and support from various affiliations over the following weeks.

MODERATION OVERSHADOWS EXTREMISM

Despite the loss of Rafic Hariri and the Future Movement’s dwindling popular support, it often seems as if Saad’s absence from the political scene is enough to portray the Sunni community as being without a national leader. Despite his constant losses and defeats, he is perceived as being the only Sunni politician with enough gravitas to be treated seriously by other politicians.

In 2011, after Hariri was forced out of office in a soft coup by Hezbollah and its allies during a state visit to Washington DC, he went into exile.

Prior to his return in 2014, the country went through a period of drastic events that left Sunnis feeling even more threatened and misrepresented. Motivated by the war next door in Syria, Sunni Islamist groups attempted to establish control over cities like Sidon and Tripoli. The former, a southern coastal city where the Hariri family is originally from, was the site of radical preacher Ahmad al Assir and his gang, who was fiercely anti-Hezbollah.

These extremists began to portray the Sunnis they claimed to represent in a different light. Some believe that the absence of the moderate and open-minded Hariri had made room for intolerant groups to dominate the scene. These expansionist groups were eventually crushed by armed forces in both cities, in June 2013 and October 2014 respectively.

Sunnis have been careful to prevent such groups from finding safe havens in their regions. Quite often extremists are instantly labeled as “terrorists” or “terrorist sympathizers” by Sunni-controlled media. While lone wolves or terror cells have in the past operated from Sunni-majority areas, most people have disavowed them and avoided being dragged into their unlawful actions.

NOT THE ONLY SUNNI VOICE

Not all Sunnis however would agree that Hariri is the only man allowed to represent them. The old practice of feudalism is common, and there are other prominent faces across the country that have support amongst Lebanon’s Sunnis.

In Tripoli, Faisal Karameh, Najib Mikati, and Mohammad Safadi are well-known figures. Mikati, a billionaire from the country’s poorest city by far, has served as Prime Minister twice. Safadi, a former cabinet member and fellow billionaire, had been set to become Prime Minister but stepped down in the face of overwhelming public opposition. All three are conceivable successors to Hariri’s throne.

In Sidon, many are fond of Popular Nasserist Organisation leader Oussama Saad. The left-wing, Arab nationalist managed to gain the second parliamentary seat in the city alongside Hariri’s aunt, Bahia. He remains, however, their sole Parliamentarian, and Nasserism is largely seen as a relic of times past.

A new electoral system based on proportional representation adopted for the last legislative polls in 2018 saw some new faces enter Parliament alongside Saad. This change helped Sunni rivals take seats at the expense of the Future Movement.

Those elections, which saw pro-Hezbollah Sunnis (including Saad and Mrad) enter the legislature, came as a reminder that not all Sunnis agreed with Hariri when it came to his local and foreign policies or his international alliances, which tend towards Saudi Arabia and the West. Hezbollah and its Sunni allies have strong ties to Syria’s Ba’athist regime, which is hostile to Hariri and represents an alternative to the 50-year old’s pragmatic foreign policy choices.

KEEPING IT IN THE FAMILY

Another option from the same bloodline as Hariri has begun to make himself known on the political stage. In recent months, Saad’s older brother, Bahaa Hariri, has been making media appearances. Bahaa has never played an active political role, and his emergence raises questions in a time in which his brother Saad, and the country, are in crisis.

Many believe he is trying to occupy the Sunni leadership, presenting himself as someone completely opposed to the sectarian and corrupt establishment his brother has been part of for years. Local media reports have claimed that Bahaa’s newly recruited supporters were involved in some riots in Beirut and clashed with Saad’s loyalists.

For his part, Bahaa has played down any desire to become prime minister or enter politics. Any family feud could further worsen polarisation in the Sunni community; the divide now not only involves pro and anti-Future Movement sentiment but sibling rivalry between the Hariri brothers.

Saad has tried to avoid discussing relations with his brother, refusing to touch on family affairs in a recent television interview. In the same interview, aired live on MTV Lebanon, he also stated that he was ready to hold accountable anyone in his party who was found guilty of corruption. Such claims were met with mockery online from a disenchanted public.

Before the interview even aired, incidentally his first main appearance for a year after his resignation, Saad was already being blasted on social media. Twitter users, who started an Arabic hashtag trend “Saad Al-Inbitahi”, labeled him as someone who had no back-bone, or was always ready to give in. He defended himself against these accusations, remaining adamant that he had no other choice than to seek compromise with his foes in order to avoid strife in the country.

LOSING SUPPORT

The Future Movement, which has traditionally enjoyed support in different Sunni-majority constituencies, and has participated in most Lebanese governments, has repeatedly failed in addressing pressing issues and bettering the most basic services in these regions. These include - along with Tripoli - the northern Akkar and Minieh-Danniyeh districts, which record the highest numbers of people living in poverty in Lebanon.

While it is evident that Hariri’s popularity has dropped significantly in these areas, others seem to think he still makes the cut when it comes to being the country’s main Sunni leader. Ahmad, a Future Movement representative in Canada, believes most Sunnis in Lebanon will still vote for Hariri in any future elections.

“No other Sunni leader can be substituted for Saad’s popular leadership and far-reaching wealth of domestic, regional, and international ties,” he said in an interview with LevantX. He did, however, not deny that Hariri’s support was waning both on a national level and within his Sunni base.

He blames Hariri for compromising too much and not taking a stand against Hezbollah. “Many see Hariri as being a hostage providing cover to Hezbollah and its pro-Iranian policies and ambitions. I personally see him as a victim, drowning in the sea of regional feuds” Ahmad admitted. 

A Beirut native I spoke to from the city’s large and prominent Itani family agrees. “Hariri has lost a lot (of support) since 2018, and I know many people who would never vote for him again”.

Echoing Ahmad’s remarks about compromising, Mr. Itani also believes Hariri does this just to appease his foes in Hezbollah so he can remain relevant.

“I guess around a third of Sunnis want Saad, and half of those only because they loved his father, whilst the other half are just afraid of the Shiites”, Mr Itani claimed, adding that the remainder doesn’t care as long as the country’s overall situation improves.

Itani’s remarks about Sunnis fearing Shiites are in reference to the history of violence between the two factions.

In May 2008, Hezbollah and other militias, namely the Amal Movement and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, invaded large parts of western Beirut, taking over Future Movement offices and burning down the party’s Future Television. The week-long clashes, which spread into Druze-majority suburbs and left dozens killed and wounded, still haunts the people of Beirut, especially Sunni locals who lived through the horror.

The bloody events, triggered by a government decision to dismantle Hezbollah’s private and illegal telecoms network, left many Sunnis across the country living in utter despair due to the lack of justice and accountability until this day.

A political settlement engineered in Qatar followed, ending a presidential and government vacuum, which made Hariri premier for the first time. It was as if the Lebanese - in this case, Sunnis and non-Sunnis alike- were expected to forget and move on, and accept that there is a certain group in the country who has enough power to do whatever they want, whenever they want.

MAKE OR BREAK

As the country sits at a crossroads and witnesses historic changes on all fronts, its social dynamics are changing. Since being founded 100 years ago, Lebanon’s various sects have risen and fallen at the hands of local and regional forces. Despite being in a Sunni-majority region, with Islamic regional superpowers Turkey and Saudi Arabia on different ends, the Sunnis of Lebanon today don’t seem to be in the best of states. They feel as if their role in the country’s future- however that may pan out- is at stake, due to a lost leadership which has been beaten again and again.

Whether Hariri can continue to remain the undisputed leader of the Sunni faction or will be swept aside by new blood is a question on the lips of most of Lebanon. His ability to survive has been down to a lack of an alternative. If one could be found, especially if that successor comes from within his own dynasty, his survival skills will be sorely tested. One thing is clear; Hariri has been given a final warning by his previously loyal supporters: adapt or face irrelevance. Now we must wait to see if Lebanon’s Irreplaceable Man can save himself and his movement or face a final, humiliating fall from grace.