The Renaissance Dam Crisis: Water Wars between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt

The Grand Renaissance Dam mega-project, a four billion dollar venture located on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, is the source of new tensions for countries both downstream and upstream of the controversial dam, especially after Ethiopia announced that it had completed the first phase of filling the reservoir.

Egypt and Sudan fear that its construction will negatively affect their share of water from the Nile river, and while the two countries' concerns revolve around the possibility of a drought, Ethiopia continues to fill the reservoir in a process that will take several years.

The Renaissance Dam: An Ethiopian political project

Ethiopia launched the GRED, to be the largest dam in Africa after that site was reserved for the Aswan High Dam, which was built by Egypt in 1960 with Soviet assistance and became the front of the Nasserist regime.

The Renaissance Dam is 175 meters high and 1800 meters long and will allow for the production of 6,450 megawatts of electricity with storage capacity is 67 billion cubic meters, which is roughly equivalent to the annual flow of the river. Ethiopia made the decision to build the dam unilaterally, and, according to Ethopian Government statements, two-thirds of it has been completed.

The Ethiopian project is above all a political project. It seeks to strengthen national cohesion in a country where power is monopolized by the minority ethnic group Tigrayans , which faces opposition from the ethnic majority Oromo people. When the Oromo launched demonstrations towards the end of 2016, the Ethophian Government accused Egypt inciting this rebellion. Questions were raised as to the purpose of a dam producing more than 6000 megawatts of electricity when Ethiopia and all its neighbours combined consume barely 800 megawatts in total?

According to international experts, the construction of a series of small dams would be better for the environment and economy, as the consequences of constructing these huge dams (not only in Africa) has been the subject of serious discussions within the building community for a long time.

Technical issues

The need for comprehensive coordination to manage and operate the dams on the river is very important, considering that the Renaissance Dam will join the Aswan High Dam as one of the largest reservoirs in the continent, if not the world.

Egypt and Ethiopia will need to formulate a plan to coordinate the operation of these two dams and to equitably share the Nile water during the filling periods and drought. This is a necessity, since there is no other instance where two large dams are running on the same river without close coordination.

To achieve Ethiopia's strategy of not causing harm to countries downstream of them, it is important that the Renaissance Dam, the High Dam, and Sudan's water reserves be managed in coordination between the three countries, so that there is no case of excessive storage facilities in which the volume of stored water is more than what is required to protect from drought.

There are risks in building the dam in its current form, as the design of the Renaissance Dam requires the construction of a very large "Saddle Dam" to prevent the leakage of water stored behind the Renaissance from the north-western end of the reservoir. The risks associated with a possible failure of this dam may not have been assessed and must be managed with care.

The issue of equitable water provision remains absent, as the construction of the Renaissance Dam neglected the lack of guarantees and the ability to provide water to Egypt and Sudan during the filling of the reservoir or during periods of drought, 

Failed negotiations

Due to the complexities of the file and the divergence of positions between the three countries, despite the ongoing negotiations since 2011 that have not yet led to positive results. However, the failure of the Kinshasa negotiations between the three countries should not prevent the continuation of the negotiations process.

The strong statements issued by Addis Ababa, Khartoum and Cairo after the Kinshasa negotiations, which concluded in April, indicate that resolving the differences is heading towards options that may worsen their relations, especially if each party relies on its position without taking into account the interests of other countries.

If Ethiopia has the right to build a dam that provides it with electric power and promotes its development plans, then Egypt and Sudan have the right to obtain enough water from the Nile as it is their lifeline. The three countries would do well to remember their united historical relations and avoid violating each country’s sovereignty.

The escalation of tensions around  the Renaissance Dam crisis will not serve anyone. Rather, it opens the way for foreign actors to intervene.

There are indeed different national agendas, different security, economic and political perspectives, but all of this should derail negotiations. Each country will have to compromise to reach an agreement that works for all parties and reserve their rights.

Since the signing of an Agreement of Principles between the three countries in 2015, all subsequent negotiations have faltered. Opinions differ on the mechanisms of negotiations; largely between those that believe African mediation is useless, and must move to a quadripartite umbrella that includes the United States, the European Union and the United Nations as well as the African Union, and among those who insist that the negotiations remain within their purely African framework.

The first party believes that expanding the negotiating table gives it momentum, strength and ability to achieve a suitable solution, and the other side adheres to the African Union as the only party participating in the negotiations for fear of exposing it to external pressures.

Egypt and Sudan fear that Ethiopia will proceed with the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, which may affect their share of the Nile water that they need for irrigation, development and electricity. Ethiopia states that the second filling of the dam will not affect the share of the two downstream countries.

If bringing the issue to the Security Council is one of the Egyptian-Sudanese options for resolving the crisis, then the other options through dialogue are the most effective; the tendency to cooperate instead of confront reduces the cost of the dispute. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has been at pains to point out that Egypt respects and appreciates the people's desire for development and progress, which includes an implicit understanding that Ethiopia's people possess that same right.

Second filling of the dam: Total Victory?

Ethiopia recently announced they started building a second dam, the Agma Shasha, in the Amhara region. This dam has a height of 45 and a half meters, a length of 371 meters, and a storage capacity of 55 million cubic meters (the same as Egypt's annual share). They have additionally said they are planning to start the second filling of the Renaissance Dam in July or August. If this does occur, without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan, this would represent a complete victory for Ethiopian will.

The Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Yasser Abbas, said in February 2021 that “the ‘unilateral filling’ of the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in July would pose a direct threat to the Sudanese national security.”

Egypt has also issued several threatening statements, which could lead to future escalation, especially since resorting to the Security Council cannot take place without the approval of Ethiopia, which prefers the mediation of the African Union.

How could this crisis be solved? 

There is no solution but negotiation. Military intervention will not solve the conflict and will not be in the interest of the three countries. Nothing can be ruled out totally; there are countries that have an interest in destroying the Egyptian armed forces and Ethopia has heavily fortified the dam area.

The three parties should sit and negotiate directly without resorting to violence. Egypt could store quantities of water behind the High Dam and Sudan could potentially play an important role by compensating for the shortfall in Egypt's share through stockpiling the water behind the "Merowe" dam.

Sudan is the party that is most capable of achieving success in this crisis, due to its great acceptance on the Ethiopian side and to some extent with the Egyptian side. Sudan’s territory will be squarely in the main theatre of operations, so they have a vested interest in preventing war. The main problem in Khartoum is that of internal political polarization, which will likely mean that the current Sudanese administration will be unable to play this role. 

The role of the mediator can be played by popular diplomacy in partnership between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, with the African Union, but the African Union may be biased in favour of Ethiopia, and they will be unlikely to block any expansion of the dam.

The African Union has not so far proved itself capable of rising to the challenge, and the change of the presidency of the Union from South Africa, which had performed poorly, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo is just a matter of routine and a formality. Hopes remain weak for the DRC to make a breakthrough, whilst the President of Congo, Felix Ceschieskedi, has visited Khartoum and Egypt to prepare and then formulate a vision to present them to the three countries in the form of mediation to push this file to achieve a satisfactory agreement without risking the security of the region.

The Renaissance Dam is both a symbol of progress and a magnet for conflict. Ethiopia has invested a significant amount into this project, almost 7% of their annual GDP, and will not easily walk away. At the same time, Egypt and Sudan watch anxiously as their own water needs are likely to be harmed. 

The last decade has seen a series of think tanks and government report warning on the outbreak of so-called ‘water wars’, particularly around hotspots like the Nile delta. Whether this latest dispute will be added to the already grimly-long list of such conflicts is yet to be seen. What is needed is clear; peaceful negotiation based around mutual interest with a view to allowing our most precious natural resource to be managed properly.

Whether this will happen is another question and, for the moment, the world is waiting to see whether the Renaissance Dam project will be a successful mega-project or a trigger point for a bloody conflict in the region.


By Ahmed Ben Omer