So What Next for Turkey? The Great Game in a New World
Photo by SaintsimoNanu.
On the 20th January 2021, the Presidency of the United States of America will change hands. With or without the acceptance of Donald Trump, Joe Biden will become the 46th inhabitant of the Oval Office and, for the first time since 1993, will be taking the office after defeating an incumbent President.
The ‘to-do-list’ will be pretty long. The COVID-19 pandemic, an economic downturn, and a spiralling national debt all have to be confronted whilst Biden presides over a split government as the opposition Republican Party controls one of the legislative chambers. Quite frankly, it is difficult to see why he even wants the job.
With his domestic timetable largely being occupied with the global pandemic and accompanying economic crisis, it is likely that Biden will lean on foreign policy at first. This is nothing new; plenty of American Presidents have turned to the foreign arena when facing difficulties at home (a lesser man might use the phrase ‘meddling’ at this point). Bush Snr had the first gulf war, Clinton had the Balkans, Bush Jnr had the second Gulf War and the global war on terror...you get the point.
The so-called ‘blob’, a term coined by Obama adviser Ben Rhodes for the shapeless mass of foreign policy ‘experts’ that seem to haunt Washington DC , is usually the best place to listen to in order to understand general trends in American foreign policy. Through their normal media outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, or various opinion pages, it is clear that China is the new foreign policy target. Obama and Trump were in rare agreement on this. Obama’s ‘pivot’ and Trump’s open trade wars both received positive reviews from many different members of the foreign policy establishment.
This leaves the Middle East as the battleground of yesteryear in many ways. ISIS is no longer in the public mind, Israel appears to be expanding unchecked, and oil is no longer priority number one as the energy market shifts towards renewables. Stung by previous failures, the US has been shifting their resources away from the region for a number of years and opening up a power vacuum for the region's players to step into.
WHAT NOW FOR TURKEY?
So what happens now for President Erdogan and his ‘new Turkey’. In terms of the new US President, they are left in a tricky situation. Criticized and praised in roughly equal measure by the previous President, they cannot rely on the old ‘enemy-of-my-enemy’ tactic.
Trump enjoyed good relations with President Erdogan on a personal level; possibly because of numerous conflicts of interest and probably due to Trump’s well-known fascination with authoritarian strongmen. President-elect Biden has neither of these characteristics and, in fact, is likely to want to score easy points against an authoritarian state.
Publicly, the Turkish Government has already congratulated Biden on his victory and emphasized its ability to work with Presidents from both parties. Privately, there must be some concern. Biden called many other countries before picking up the phone to Erdogan, possibly signalling a shift in priorities but likely showing his importance in the pecking order. Biden has stated he wants democracies at the heart of his new foreign policy and Turkey’s authoritarian swing has not impressed.
This comes at a bad time for Ankara. The Turkish Lira is already in serious trouble and the Turkish economy remains damaged and vulnerable to threatened sanctions over their cooperation with Russia. Opposition gains at the last Turkish elections were attributed, in part, to this weak economy and represent one of the only viable threats to Erdogan’s continued rule. Sanctions remain a distinct possibility.
Turkey faces the double-vice grip of an economic meltdown and an unfriendly, if uncaring, Washington establishment. Other countries can get by being pariah states, Turkey cannot. So what are the ways Ankara could release itself from this trap?
THE NEVER-ENDING GAME
Foreign policy is complex and is best described as like trying to play chess in a hurricane. Because of the constantly shifting board, a number of opportunities will arise from unexpected places. And Turkey sits at a particularly important part of the playing surface.
Brewing tensions in both the Balkans and the greater Middle-Eastern area, combined with relative Turkish military power leaves them with more than a few strong moves left to play. Recently the US has begun to shift away from the Middle East for a number of reasons; the pivot to China, a lessening need for oil, and the legacy of previous failures.
Trump has pledged to pull most remaining forces before he leaves office and Biden has been non-committal about most countries. This leaves a gap in the market, so to speak, for Turkey to assert itself.
Trump previously relied on Turkey to fill the gap he created by withdrawing troops from northern Syria (accusations of family business dealings being involved flew after the surprise announcement). Results were mixed to say the least: Erdogan used the opportunity to seize crucial land from US-allied Kurdish forces and Trump suffered intense domestic criticism. Biden is no easy mark for this sort of activity, but the strength of Turkish forces could permit him to sign a ‘devil's bargain’; relative stability in the Middle East and a powerful ally against Chinese and Russian influence in exchange for a blind eye to Erdoğan's excesses. This would be no move of Obama’s but, then, Biden is no Obama.
The old enemy-turned-friend-turned-enemy is another route out of the Turkish bind. Russia is a prominent ‘frenemy’ with Turkey, walking quietly alongside each other whilst each clutches their big stick. For hundreds of years, prominent leaders such as Russian Tsar Peter the Great or Ottoman Grand Viser Baltacı Mehmet Pasha used to do battle over the same areas that their modern-day equivalents are eying up now. Yet, a recent purchase of the S-400 rocket system from Russia by Turkey has infuriated NATO allies and brought the aforementioned talk of sanctions whilst at the very same time the two countries were widely regarded as engaging in a proxy struggle against one another in Nagorno-Karabakh. Strange bedfellows but no stranger than other historical rivalries turned friendships.
As the two forces move warily, it can be assumed that they are unlikely to come to direct conflict. Proxy war on a larger scale is more likely. An alliance, or at least a detente, could give Russia free rein in Central Asia and Western Europe whilst Turkish power could grow unchecked in the Middle East. The Balkans and the Caspian Sea remain major stumbling blocks as the economic lifeblood that is oil and gas are the key targets for both countries.
China is another move that offers options to Turkey. Their expansion has clearly spooked the US and the West generally; a 2018 report from the US Department of Defence outlined China’s growing power in a number of locations. Recently, a senior US military officer, Commander General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr, described the Middle East as the ‘wild west’ when it came to expansion by foreign powers and called out China for a special mention. Whilst members of the Levantine community will probably resent another American general treating them as pieces to be moved around by greater players, his comments do reflect a growing consensus that China is openly positioning itself as the next world power.
The Chinese Century may or may not come to pass (just ask the rest of the BRICs or 90’s Japan about this), such predictions are difficult if not impossible to make. But in the public mind, they remain a threat to US hegemony which is usually enough for policymakers. To Ankara, China could either be an ally with which to fight back Western and Russian influence or an enemy with which to promote their usefulness to the West. China has few real friends internationally and not as much combat operational experience as they’d like. A strong relationship with Turkey would be a major coup; a strengthening of Chinese influence in a key region and a weakening of Nato and the West in general.
DIVIDING THE UNKNOWABLE
It is worth noting that foreign policy and politics are driven by unpredictable events as much as they are long-term planning. The ability to react and adapt is more important as the ability to plan out complicated diplomatic moves that could be scuppered by a new assassination, terrorist attack, or natural disaster.
For now, plotting out Turkey’s short-term options is probably our best guide as to what might happen. The disadvantages of their immediate position, whilst far from hopeless, should be concerning to Ankara.
Nevertheless, Turkey acts as the gateway between Europe and the wider MENA region. Historically, Istanbul has served as a melting pot of cultures and political issues, and whoever controlled this ‘queen of cities’ enjoyed extended their grip over thousands of miles of territory in three continents. Modern-day Turkish power is more than that of a passive bystander or pawn on the board, yet the wrong move could bring this New Great Game to a sudden and ignominious end. When President Biden ascends to the Oval Office, Turkey will be presented with a number of options. Which move will they make?